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December 07, 2003
Forgive me a little bit
Forgive me a little bit of speculative dreaming here. The rumor mill in the Hot Stove has the Red Sox making two deals in the next couple of days... the A-Rod for Manny deal with Texas, and then sending Nomar Garciaparra to Anaheim for - get this - Jarrod Washburn and possibly Troy Glaus.
For now, let's looking past the issue that the Red Sox are escalating baseball's Cold War, and these trades would drive their payroll to Steinbrenarian levels. It's a terrible thing the Sox are doing, playing George's game in order to beat him at it. But I already covered that a week ago when we got Schilling, so I'll move on. And I also won't address (right now) my sadness if Nomah leaves Boston... not only is he a talented shortstop (far better than Derek Jeter when it comes to pure skills), a good human being & role model, and one of the all time great Red Sox, but his name is more tailored for playing in Boston than any major leaguer in history - can you think of a name that better lends itself to the New England accent than "Nomahhh?" I love Nomah; he is my favorite player, and I would honestly be sad to see him go. Plus, I do NOT like Pay-Rod - no matter his talent, I find him greedy and selfish, and I think he's more concerned with his stats and his paycheck than he is with winning (if he truly cared about winning, he'd restructure his contract and allow the Rangers to get some more pitching while staying within their means. But I digress.)
For now, though, I want to leave all those other issues aside. No worrying about which players I like or don't, and no thinking about the detrimental effect that the Sox payroll would have on baseball's smaller markets. I just want to speculate, for a moment, about what the 2004 Red Sox will look like if these trades go through.
Assuming that all these trades happen, our starting lineup could look something like this: 1B: Bill Mueller, 2B: Damian Jackson, 3B: Troy Glaus, SS: Alex Rodriguez, C: Jason Varitek, LF: Kevin Millar, CF: Johnny Damon, RF: Trot Nixon, DH: David Ortiz. Our starting rotation would be: Martinez, Schilling, Lowe, Washburn, Wakefield. We'd have Kim, Embree, Sauerbeck, and Timlin as the middle relievers to set up Williamson (or Keith Foulke, if we get him). And off the bench to hit or spell some guys, we'd have Gabe Kapler, Doug Mirabelli, Kevin Youkilis, and a few other journeymen or roster fillers or minor leaguers.
I have to think that this lineup would be the odds-on World Series favorite. Ok, true... Bill Mueller had a career year, and we can't expect him to hit .330 again; Troy Glaus will bat .260 if we're lucky; we probably shouldn't expect to see another year out of Millar that was as productive as 2003. All good points.
That said - Mueller in Fenway could easily hit .290; Jackson won't hit more than .250 or .260, but he'll steal 40 bases and give us a solid defensive presence at second base. A-Rod in Fenway? Give me a break - he'll hit .325, with 45-50 home runs, and he'll drive in 130. Glaus also would benefit from Fenway; he might hit only .250, but he will hit 40 home runs as well. Millar should go about .270-15-80; Damon about .265-10-60, and will score 100 runs and steal 30 bases; Nixon should go .295-30-100. Varitek will do his usual .275-20-90 as the most underrated catcher in baseball. And David Ortiz should go .290-30-95 again. Our batting order would likely be something like Damon, Nixon, A-Rod, Glaus, Ortiz, Millar, Varitek, Mueller, Jackson.
And the rotation? Can you think of any team that has a better *number 4* starter than Jarrod Washburn? Pedro will win 15-20 with 250 Ks and a 2.50 ERA; Schilling probably will win 18-22 games, strike out 280, and an ERA around 2.90 or 3.00; Derek Lowe should win about 14-17 with 200 strikeouts and around a 3.60 ERA; Washburn could win 14-15 games in Boston; and Wakefield and his junkball can win another 11 or 12 out of the 5 slot. That's anywhere between 72 and 86 wins just out of their starters. And with that offense behind them, I'm inclined to think it will be closer to the higher number than the lower end. Add in another 20 wins out of the bullpen... that team, if it were to come into existence, could win 100-105 games.
It probably won't happen. It probably *shouldn't* happen, for the larger good of baseball. But man... oh man, if it did.
