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January 20, 2004
MORE ON IOWA
Is it just me? Did anyone else make the connection in their minds between Howard Dean's bizarre speech last night, and the infamous "Dance Monkey Boy" video of Microsoft honcho Steve Ballmer?
I feel sorry for Dean in a way. I know what he was trying to do. He'd just lost a race he was supposed to win, and there were a lot of crushed hopes and heavy hearts in that room. I've been there; I know how drained and let down and miserable you feel when you pour your whole soul into an election and lose anyway. The last time I cried in public was the night my boss lost in 1992 and he was giving his concession speech. You can't help it - you have given everything for this night, and it's gone horribly wrong... and you're watching what is likely the end of the career of someone you cared enough to bleed for. So I know that Dean was probably just trying to raise the spirits and pump up the hopes of some very crushed people in front of him. I give him credit for that. But jeez, man! You're running for President of the United States! You have got to show some more decorum and professionalism up there. I think Dean did himself no favors last night, no matter how noble his intentions.
Meanwhile, the polls are now coming in from New Hampshire; one taken Monday just before Iowa and released today by WHDH-TV in Boston (which is the main TV market for NH) has Dean leading still, with 23%... but Kerry is now within striking distance in second place with 20%, and with Clark also in range in 3rd with 15%. Edwards is polling 4th, with 6%. A separate poll has Dean at 28%, Kerry at 20%, Clark at 19%, and Edwards at 8%. The question now is whether Kerry's Iowa bounce can spill over into New Hampshire.
In one sense he has the benefit of geography going for him now, but he also faces an uphill climb, in that the anti-Dean forces in New Hampshire had been coalescing around Wesley Clark, who's spent 2 straight uniterrupted months building his New Hampshire presence. Even if Dean is wounded, it is now a very real possibility that Kerry and Clark will split the anti-Dean, "we need a veteran who can counter Bush's attempts to make us look unpatriotic" vote... allowing Dean to sneak and eke by with a win. Or, if Kerry's momentum does carry over, the once promising Clark campaign could be out of steam before it even begins.
The wild card is Edwards. He has admittedly little organization in New Hampshire, and is polling in the single digits... but ten days ago, that was the case in Iowa too. There are a number of southern primaries coming up, and Edwards will likely show well in them - especially if he appears a strong, viable candidate heading in. Right now, you'd have to say that the top three in New Hampshire will be Dean, Kerry, and Clark, in some order. But if Edwards manages a second stunner and can displace one of those three, whether to win, place or show... it's a whole new ballgame. Surprising support in two states where he had no organization is a huge story, and he'll be the media darling coming out of New Hampshire - and heading into southern states where he holds an advantage. That might not win it for him, but it would make John Edwards a viable contender well into the spring. Keep watching.
BUSH'S STATE OF THE UNION TONIGHT: LIES, DAMN LIES, AND STATISTICS
I wasn't even going to watch tonight; I usually can't stomach seeing the _resident or hearing his deceptions and lies. But then I saw Jo Fish link to a great game: the State of the Union Challenge! While I have to admit that I think it would be more fun to drink along with the speech (look at the rules... you'd be hammered and on the way to the hospital if you drank along!), I have to be at the dentist's in the morning - so I will go along with the popular alternative. I'll pledge $1 to my charity of choice -- Best Friends animal shelter -- for every time GeeDubya uses one of the catch phrases listed - with a $10 bonus thrown in if he combines "tax relief" with "middle class" for the biggest lie yet.
Okay... I promise, no more political blogs until the weekend... all politics and no play makes mine a dull blog. (Not that political blogs are dull by nature, I just can only be insightful for so long before becoming more annoying than intelligent.)
BASEBALL: THE DAMAGE DONE BY A GREEDY AGENT
Great column here by NBC Sports' Tony DeMarco on the damage being done by greedy -- and notorious hardball playing -- Uber-Agent Scott Boras to his clients' well being. Look, I'm all for players making their fair share of the pie they help create with their on-field play. But Boras seems to be the only agent left in the game who doesn't understand that salaries can't escalate forever, that most teams can't afford to pay the salaries he demands, and even those that can afford it will often balk at his chafing, uncompromising attitude. The list of players unwittingly being screwed by Boras includes three future Hall of Famers: Ivan Rodriguez, Greg Maddux, and Alex Rodriguez. Hopefully, one of these high visibility players will come to his senses and publicly fire Boras -- bringing us all a little closer, perhaps, to the end of the over-greedy era in baseball.
