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January 27, 2004
NEW HAMPSHIRE RESULTS
Okay. I feel better now. Whew!
I was starting to really worry about the deterioration of my political judgement. But - with 95% of the vote now in, the numbers are: Kerry 39%, Dean 26%, Clark 13%, Edwards 12%, Lieberman 9%, Kucinich 1%, Sharpton 0%. Now - take a look at the post below, from 12:24 Tuesday afternoon. Kerry: in first with 39%. Dean in second with 24%. Edwards 14%, Clark 11%, Lieberman 9%, Kucinich 1%, Sharpton less than 1%. I was dead on - to the number - on Kerry. Dean, I was within 2 points - a statistical anomaly. Clark and Edwards, I was virtually right on the numbers, just got the order mixed up... and since the difference between them is only about 700 votes, I'm claiming victory there too. Lieberman? Called him exactly right. Kucinich and Sharpton? Got them too. Man, I'm good. Russert, watch out!
All self-deluding bluster aside, here's some thoughts on the candidates tonight:
Kerry - did a great job, followed the script to a T, acted like the front runner he now is, aimed at the President and not the field... did exactly what a New Hampshire winner should. But, as one of the commentators said, "A New Englander won in New Hampshire. Big whup." Kerry needs a win next Tuesday - either in South Carolina or more tellingly Missouri - to cement himself as the front runner.
Dean - can't consider this a good night by any stretch; he got beat by double digits. He's clearly lost momentum. However, I will give him his props - his speech tonight was the best one I have heard him make... and while it sounded Edwardian, if he's appropriating some of Edwards' themes that hurt the Republicans, well, it will not hurt the party to have the top three candidates singing from the same music.
Clark - seems to have eked out 3rd, but 12-13% of the vote in a state where you had two virtually unchallenged months is just not promising. Clark needs a win or 2nd place in South Carolina next week to have any shot. By the way, why did he come out for his speech at the exact same moment that Kerry did? Considering Kerry just won, don't you think that everyone would be covering his speech? Which means, no one could cover Clark's speech? Yeah, good advice, Lehane.
Edwards - I have to admit, this is the second week in a row that Edwards' election night speech has impressed me. But he's now officially lost his post-Iowa momentum... and since many folks are already conceding him South Carolina, he's going to need at least one more win next week to maintain buzz and stay viable. Look for him to push hardest in Missouri, South Carolina, and maybe New Mexico or Oklahoma.
Lieberman - What planet was he on tonight? Rallying the troops and saying that the people of New Hampshire put him back on the map? Joe, they put you in fifth place! In single digits! Saying that this is proof that you have momentum? Sure - if your end goal is to beat Kucinich and Sharpton! I feel bad for Joe in a way... Gore sold him out for a wild-eyed doctor who's going to lose... and even someone like me who doesn't really like his politics has to admit that he's been a dedicated and admirable public servant. It's got to be hard to give up the big dream. But Joe? You're done. I'm sorry.
One last note - I have been stunned to realize that the most objective, insightful, and articulate analyses I've seen from any of the MSNBC commentators (get the sense that they're my network of choice?) has been from Joe Scarborough - the former Congressman from Florida and a staunch conservative who makes Orrin Hatch look positively Kennedyesque. I have refused to watch Scarborough's show, expecting it to be one more conservative talk show blowhard spewing dogma and pretending it's a spin on the news. But last week in Iowa and again tonight, he's been a thoughtful and insightful analyst who in my opinion deserves credit for covering this primary season extremely well. He's bottled the invective I know must be boiling inside him when he hears these guys rip on Bush... and he's delivered accurate and prescient insight into the trends, events, and meanings behind the results.
Maybe his show is still an excuse for promulgating conservative thought - I don't know. But Joe Scarbrough's been a pretty good analyst so far, and he's earned my viewership for at least one show. Good job, Joe.
